To me Hendo winning this is the most important result to me this year. I see it as a complete underdog fight, Id give Hendo a 1/3 shot at best. But what an underdog story if Hendo wins.
I cant get the Shields fight out of my head. If Shields stepped up to Lhw id imagine Bones would have no trouble rag dolling him around. Hendo is similar sized to Shields. I dont get these MMA fighters mentioning Hendos wrestling background, Jones is a couple of weight classes above him. Jones is a passible Hw Hendo a small Mw, Weight matters most in Wrestling hence "Athletes" Cole Konrads size in the sport. If they lock up thre is only 1 guy doing the pushing around. Hendo needs a striking match more than he realises I think.
Hendo doesnt offer a threat Grappling wise and if Jones knows this he will be fine, Elbow him to oblivion from his guard or Sub him. If he doesnt rely on this and wants to throw down I think he will get a nasty shock.
The things about Hendo I think will work for him are his toughness and experience. Jones is going to land on him standing, long kicks, standing elbows etc.. but Hendo isnt fazed when he gets hit, He doesnt close his eyes and wince, doesnt look away, Hendo usually gets excied at the thought of being in striking range and throws leather coming forward as a response.
The only time Ive seen Jones looking on the loosing end of an exchance is when Machida chased him down throwing puches on the front foot. Something Hendo is great at that too and while he may punch thin air more than Machida did he has more stopping power in single shots. I dont think its a sure bet Hendo even wins standing, When I see a guy Jones size throw a spinning elbow or a flying knee I cant ever write his striking off!
For me Hendo needs to end it in 2 rounds, striking. Hes going to gas otherwise but If Hendo knows early he has to get the finish early I dont see him standing around like a deer in the headlights or an Anderson opponent admiring his crazy skills, as Rashad, Shogun and Rampage could all be acused of. If Hendo was willing to trade hayemakers with Fedor at Hw with Fedors stopping power he will be more than happy to do it with Jones his win will come from head down march forward and be happy to take one to give one attitude which no one does like Hendo.