While I'm not necessarily a fan of either guys personality, I do enjoy watching both Diaz and Daley fight. When this fight was first rumored, I thought this should be a pretty straight forward win for Diaz but now, I'm not sure. On the feet, I think Daley has the advantage, in terms of technique and power although Diaz has some very good boxing skills. I think for Diaz to win, he needs to get the fight to the ground. His take downs did not look good at all against Noons, but on the other hand take down defense is Daley's biggest weakness. His ground game has improved a lot over the years, but I still think if goes there, he'll end up tapping.
For me, I think Diaz will fight smart and try and tire Daley out. I think for the first couple of round he won't mind staying on the feet and let Daley chase him for a while. When it hits the third or fourth round, I reckon Diaz will be able to take Daley down and send him to sleep.
The co main event is the rematch Melendez and Crusher. I'm a big fan of Melendez but I do think he has a big advantage in this fight. Crusher showed very impressive wrestling against Thompson but I don't think he'll have the same advantages against Melendez. I think Melendez has better stand up, better BJJ and better wrestling. This fight could be fireworks and I do think it will go all 5 rounds. Melendez by UD.
The other two fights should also be fun. Mousassi fights for the first time this year and returns to SF for the first time after his loss to King Mo. Keith Jardine is a tough experienced fighter, but a slight step down from Mousassi's original opponent Kyle. Jardine has stopped the rot by winning his last two fights, but I think he's outclassed here. Mousassi is better everywhere aside from wrestling. If Jardine has any chance to win, he needs to turn the fight to a wrestling match, and even then Mousassi's judo is very good. I think Mousassi will outclass him on the feet and stop him in the 2nd or 3rd round.
And finally Aoki returns for the first time since his embarrassing loss at the New year show. I find this a bizarre fight to make, fancy pants is coming off a loss for the first time in his career. Surely Healy would have made more sense or is he injured? Either way this should be an exciting fight. Aoki needs to make this a grappling contest like Healy did and he'll win easily and quickly. Aoki's standup and chin though always give him a problem in fights. I think if Aoki loses, he might retire.
Shame Takaya is only on the prelims and lets all hope Daley makes weight.
Thoughts?