It's funny how the guys on here who have made it public that they hate Lesnar are the ones who seem certain that he has no chance, funny how that works out.
Despite what weight class he has been in, Reem has beaten 1 top 10 fighter in 5 years, and that was the bore fest against Werdum that many people actually thought Werdum won. Since then, Lesnar lost a 2 on 1 handicap match to Frank Mir and Steve Mazzagatti, then beat Heath Herring who was coming off a win over Kongo and close decision loss to Big Nog, then he beat Couture for the belt, then he destroyed Mir, then he beat Carwin, then he lost to Cain who had run through everybody. Funny how some people are saying that Lesnar's list of victories isn't impressive, but Reem beating the likes of Kazuyuki Fujita and James Thompson apparently makes him the most underrated HW in the world, ok then.
I'd say that it's quite the opposite of him apparently being the most underrated, Reem wins the K1 Grand Prix and then apparently it's the second coming. We saw in the Werdum fight that he might be a top striker, but that means fuck all when he's in there with a guy who wants to take him down. Well done to Reem for being K1 Champion, it was a great achievement, but it's no different to Lesnar being a NCAA Division 1 Wrestler. They both might be top guys in different sports, but that changes when it's a MMA bout, as we have seen with Lesnar struggling to get some guys down, and Reem struggling to do anything with his striking, but the difference being that Lesnar struggled to get down other guys who have wrestling credentials, whereas Reem couldn't use his striking against a Jiu-Jitsu guy. In a fight between a striker and a wreslter, i'd much rather have the wrestling credentials than the striking credentials, and despite what everybody seems to think, if Lesnar hits you on the feet then it's likely that you're going down, as shown in his fights with Mir, Herring and Couture. I'd say that overall, Lesnar has better wrestling and striking combined to Reem's wrestling and striking.
This fight comes down to two things, the condition of both guys, and the gameplans of both guys. Lesnar will be coming off a long lay off, but if rumours are to be believed and he has spent the entire Summer training, then Lesnar should come in good shape. Reem gassed hard in his fight against Werdum, and that was just due to throwing Werdum around a few times, so you have to wonder how he'll do if/when Lesnar gets him down and has his weight on top of him. Lesnar gassed against Cain as well, and that was due to the stupid game plan he had when he ran out throwing flying knees at Cain, so if he has a better gameplan then he shouldn't gas, and that is where the gameplans come in. I assume that Reem will have the same sort of gameplan that he had against Werdum, and keep his hands low to try and defend the takedown, but there are two differences between Werdum and Lesnar, Lesnar will run through you to get the takedown, and he hits miles harder than Werdum, so Reem keeping his hands low may not be the best idea. As for Lesnar, he's obviously stronger on the ground, and if he gets the takedown, I think it will be hard for Reem to get back up. It's a lot more important for Reem to try and keep this fight standing than it is for Lesnar to try and get it to the ground.
If Reem comes in with the gameplan he had against Werdum, I give the edge to Lesnar, if Lesnar comes in with the gameplan he had against Velasquez, I give the edge to Reem. It's a close fight to call, but I have to go with Lesnar.